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Business Cycles, by Lars Tvede
Free PDF Business Cycles, by Lars Tvede
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Why do we experience business cycles? What creates them? Is it mass psychology, or phenomena in the management of business? Are the banks to blame or should we be looking to the unions and the politicians? Lars Tvede's story moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Jay Gould and many others. The computer jugglers of the modern day, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Throughout this volume, business cycle theories are used to explain actual events. Theoretical thinking has reflected the economist's own experiences of hyper-inflations, depressions, speculation orgies and liquidity squeezes. The reader can follow the narrative to discover how economists often thought that problems had been solved until new data changed the economic picture once again.
- Sales Rank: #10377092 in Books
- Published on: 2001-11-09
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.50" h x 6.50" w x .75" l, 1.39 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 360 pages
Most helpful customer reviews
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
A history of fiscal policy for traders
By Mark Mills
This is a wonderfully argued piece of logic on monetary theory, with particular emphasis on links between 'central banks' and financial bubbles. We start with John Law's central bank and the Mississippi Bubble it created. From that disaster (and concurrent lessons for the wise), we move on to subsequent financial bubbles and additional lessons. Each bubble is explained with almost cartoonish simplicity, but the cartoons are entirely iconoclastic. Rather than be exhaustive, the book seeks to be thought provoking.
The second half of the book addresses 'cycle' theories, but Tvede can't do much more than convince us the role of cycles remains problematic. Mixed in are tales of George Soros, which only confuses the plot line.
Tvede gives considerable attention to famous traders, including the trading performance of economists who actually invested according to their theories. Here is a list of those covered:
Great traders:
Cantillon(1720): folded his positions in French Mississippi boom and got the gold to England before it was too late
Jay Gould(1869): Used connections with President Grant to corner the gold market and liquidate prior to collapse
Jesse Livermore(1920-34): Used bear raids during the 29 crash
John Maynard Keynes(1920-1940): Traded through the 1929 crash with 30% gains during the 30s (depression)
Milton Friedman (1980s): helped create financial futures
George Soros(1980-present): Currency raids on European bankers
Missing is any discussion of the economic role of taxes, crime, corruption and organized violence (war and terror). Additionally, Tvede doesn't explore the role of printed financial news in financial booms, only the role of printed (paper) money. For example, Tulip mania in Holland during the 17th century predates paper money and central banks, but coincides with the first 'newspapers'.
Finally, there is no discussion of agent based economic models or 'cycle generator' processes. For example, the opening chapters on Law is clearly triggered by a generational shift (Louis XIV's debts must be paide by Louis XV's generation), but the role individual life cycles might play in economic cycles goes unexplored.
In theoretical terms, Tvede is primarily interested in relating cycles to the formula MV = PQ (M=Money, V=Velocity of money, P=Prices, Q=Quantity). For example, considerable attention is given Friedman's trilemma: a central bank can't do all three of the following:
1. Maintaining exchange rates
2. Control price levels
3. Allow Free trade
As Tvede describes Friedman's position, everyone wants free trade, including foreign exchange trading. This makes stable exchange rates impossible to maintain if a country is to defend its population from the hardships of an economic cycle's end (provide soft landings). From this, a trader can plan to short currencies with central banks who traditionally defend exchange rates. The exchange rate is 'P', The 'defending' central bankers are trying to hold this constant. At the same time, they are attempting to hold 'Q' constant, providing their population with a stable 'standard of living'. What they cannot control is 'MV', or the amount of capital that leaks out of the system in search of better investment opportunities.
chapters 1-4 Monetary reactions to financial cycles (primarily end of cycle crisis) 1720 to 1875. The rise of classical economics
Chapter 5-6 Cycle analysis (time series analysis, data mining) 1862-1910
Chapters 7-10 Non-computational efforts to unify classic and cyclic analysis (1910-1939)
Chapters 11 to 19 Computational economics: simulation, feedback, and chaos with a major digression regarding George Soros and currency trading.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
it could have been a great book
By fCh
on a good note, this book brings a wealth of information about business cycles--historic-, economic-, academic-, and even trader-perspectives.
however, the information does not stand together--ideas jump all over the place, not connected nor well developed. careless editing--some numbers are wrong. all these make the reader long for a more careful approach.
all in all, this could be a spring-board to other titles/authors. at about half the price it could be a different story.
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